Context. The components of the geoinformation system for monitoring, forecasting and assessment of forest fire danger caused by<br />thunderstorm activity are developed. Objective of the work is to create an embedded software tool for physically based forecasting, monitoring and evaluation of the probability of forest fire occurrence as a result of the impact of a lightning discharge on a tree trunk.<br />Method. Structural analysis is used to design elements and information flows inside and outside of the developed geographic information<br />system. Mathematical modeling is used to determine the parameters of tree ignition by the cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. Mathematically,<br />the process of tree trunk heating is described using a system of non-stationary heat conduction equations with a source part responsible for the heat release according to the Joule-Lenz law in the core of the tree trunk. The finite difference method is used to solve the differential heat<br />equation. Finite-difference analogues are solved by the double-sweep method. Program realization is implemented in the built-in high-level<br />language. The probability theory (conditional probability) is used to develop a probabilistic criterion for forest fire danger estimation.<br />Results. A software tool is developed to estimate the tree ignition delay time as a result of the impact of a cloud-to-ground lightning<br />discharge. The GIS-system component is developed in the high-level programming language Python. We have obtained probability distribution of forest fire occurrences from thunderstorms for the territory of the Timiryazevsky forestry in the Tomsk region is obtained.<br />Conclusions. We have proposed a physically proved method for forecasting, monitoring and assessing forest fire danger caused by<br />thunderstorm activity. The deterministic mathematical model is used to simulate tree ignition by the cloud-to-ground lightning discharge in<br />conjunction with the probabilistic criterion for assessing forest fire danger. We have analysed forest fire danger for a typical territory of the<br />Tomsk region (Timiryazevskiy forestry).
Науковий журнал «Радіоелектроніка, інформатика, управління»
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Baranovskiy, N. V.; National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk, Russia Yankovich, E. P.; National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk, Russia |
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Context. The components of the geoinformation system for monitoring, forecasting and assessment of forest fire danger caused by<br />thunderstorm activity are developed. Objective of the work is to create an embedded software tool for physically based forecasting, monitoring and evaluation of the probability of forest fire occurrence as a result of the impact of a lightning discharge on a tree trunk.<br />Method. Structural analysis is used to design elements and information flows inside and outside of the developed geographic information<br />system. Mathematical modeling is used to determine the parameters of tree ignition by the cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. Mathematically,<br />the process of tree trunk heating is described using a system of non-stationary heat conduction equations with a source part responsible for the heat release according to the Joule-Lenz law in the core of the tree trunk. The finite difference method is used to solve the differential heat<br />equation. Finite-difference analogues are solved by the double-sweep method. Program realization is implemented in the built-in high-level<br />language. The probability theory (conditional probability) is used to develop a probabilistic criterion for forest fire danger estimation.<br />Results. A software tool is developed to estimate the tree ignition delay time as a result of the impact of a cloud-to-ground lightning<br />discharge. The GIS-system component is developed in the high-level programming language Python. We have obtained probability distribution of forest fire occurrences from thunderstorms for the territory of the Timiryazevsky forestry in the Tomsk region is obtained.<br />Conclusions. We have proposed a physically proved method for forecasting, monitoring and assessing forest fire danger caused by<br />thunderstorm activity. The deterministic mathematical model is used to simulate tree ignition by the cloud-to-ground lightning discharge in<br />conjunction with the probabilistic criterion for assessing forest fire danger. We have analysed forest fire danger for a typical territory of the<br />Tomsk region (Timiryazevskiy forestry). |
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Zaporizhzhya National Technical University 2018-05-29 13:24:17 |
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application/pdf http://ric.zntu.edu.ua/article/view/131455 |
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Radio Electronics, Computer Science, Control; No 1 (2018): Radio Electronics, Computer Science, Control |
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Copyright (c) 2018 N. V. Baranovskiy, E. P. Yankovich |
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