Contex. The actual task of forecasting an individual resource of a variety of design and design of technical systems was solved.<br />Objective. The purpose of the work is to develop a methodology for managing the operation of complex technical systems based on<br />the forecasting of their individual resource.<br />Method. Modern management methods allow you to make advance management decisions to prevent accidents and the consequent<br />technogenic catastrophes. These decisions are based on extrapolating the value of the monitored signal to the maximum permissible level.<br />However, the norms are compiled based on average statistical data, which can only relate to a controlled sample of the machine with a<br />certain degree of probability. This is the cause of errors in predicting the moment when this sample is stopped for repairs. This problem is<br />especially urgent for complex and responsible technical systems manufactured in small series or even in single specimens. Such systems do not have statistical data to create these norms.<br />To solve this problem, another management methodology was developed that excludes the extrapolation procedure and allows<br />determining the operating time of the technical system prior to repair based on the identification results of the model, describing the time<br />variation of the value of the monitored parameter<br />Results. The methodology of management of technical systems is developed, ensuring the control of their current technical condition<br />based on information on their individual resource. The methodology was used to control the gradual deterioration of the technical state of<br />the hydro turbine, which resulted in its catastrophic destruction.<br />Conclusions. The performed calculations confirmed the efficiency of the proposed methodology for managing the operation of<br />technical systems based on the forecasting of their individual resource, which makes it possible to recommend it for use in practice when<br />solving problems of controlling the operation of complex technical systems, thus preventing their accidents, often leading to man-made<br />disasters. Prospects for further research will be the development of a forecasting - diagnostic complex, the software of which reflects the<br />algorithm for applying the developed methodology of forecasting an individual resource of various designs and designation of technical<br />systems.
Науковий журнал «Радіоелектроніка, інформатика, управління»
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Nahorny, V. V.; Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine Lavrov, E. A.; Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine Fedotova, N. A.; Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine Kuznetsov, E. G.; Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine |
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Contex. The actual task of forecasting an individual resource of a variety of design and design of technical systems was solved.<br />Objective. The purpose of the work is to develop a methodology for managing the operation of complex technical systems based on<br />the forecasting of their individual resource.<br />Method. Modern management methods allow you to make advance management decisions to prevent accidents and the consequent<br />technogenic catastrophes. These decisions are based on extrapolating the value of the monitored signal to the maximum permissible level.<br />However, the norms are compiled based on average statistical data, which can only relate to a controlled sample of the machine with a<br />certain degree of probability. This is the cause of errors in predicting the moment when this sample is stopped for repairs. This problem is<br />especially urgent for complex and responsible technical systems manufactured in small series or even in single specimens. Such systems do not have statistical data to create these norms.<br />To solve this problem, another management methodology was developed that excludes the extrapolation procedure and allows<br />determining the operating time of the technical system prior to repair based on the identification results of the model, describing the time<br />variation of the value of the monitored parameter<br />Results. The methodology of management of technical systems is developed, ensuring the control of their current technical condition<br />based on information on their individual resource. The methodology was used to control the gradual deterioration of the technical state of<br />the hydro turbine, which resulted in its catastrophic destruction.<br />Conclusions. The performed calculations confirmed the efficiency of the proposed methodology for managing the operation of<br />technical systems based on the forecasting of their individual resource, which makes it possible to recommend it for use in practice when<br />solving problems of controlling the operation of complex technical systems, thus preventing their accidents, often leading to man-made<br />disasters. Prospects for further research will be the development of a forecasting - diagnostic complex, the software of which reflects the<br />algorithm for applying the developed methodology of forecasting an individual resource of various designs and designation of technical<br />systems. |
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Zaporizhzhya National Technical University 2018-05-29 13:24:17 |
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application/pdf http://ric.zntu.edu.ua/article/view/132484 |
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Radio Electronics, Computer Science, Control; No 1 (2018): Radio Electronics, Computer Science, Control |
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Copyright (c) 2018 V. V. Nahorny, E. A. Lavrov, N. A. Fedotova, E. G. Kuznetsov |
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