Development of model f integral fire riskmanagement by correlation-registration analysis
Електронний науковий архів Науково-технічної бібліотеки Національного університету "Львівська політехніка"
Переглянути архів Інформація| Поле | Співвідношення | |
| Title |
Development of model f integral fire riskmanagement by correlation-registration analysis
|
|
| Creator |
Kravtsiv, S.
Sobol, O. |
|
| Contributor |
National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine
|
|
| Subject |
risk
correlation-regression analysis factor mathematical model model adequacy 614.8 |
|
| Description |
This work is devoted to the construction of a mathematical model for controlling integral fire risk using correlation-regression analysis. On the basis of previous work, work is ongoing on developing a risk management method. For this purpose, the second cluster, which includes the Kharkiv region, was analyzed. In the field of initial data, included statistics for 2010–2017 on parameters such as the number of victims of fire in a year, the time of flight of fire and rescue units to the place of fire, the time of their localization of fire, the time of elimination of the fire and the number of people living in the study area. Using statistical data, the risk of death from a fire in a year was mathematically calculated and entered into the field of output data as a parameter to be investigated. The study cluster includes 9 areas, therefore 63 events were received and analyzed. As a result, a regression equation was obtained, which makes it possible to predict a risk with a 95 % confidence. For example, the Kharkiv region conducted a forecast of the corresponding risk, with the actual result close to the forecasted, and lies within the permissible limits with a deviation of 5 %, which indicates the reliability of the developed mathematical model. |
|
| Date |
2019-01-28T15:19:27Z
2019-01-28T15:19:27Z 2018-02-10 2018-02-10 |
|
| Type |
Article
|
|
| Identifier |
Kravtsiv S. Development of model f integral fire riskmanagement by correlation-registration analysis / S. Kravtsiv, O. Sobol // Economics, Entrepreneurship, Management. — Lviv : Lviv Politechnic Publishing House, 2018. — Vol 5. — No 1. — P. 81–86.
2312-3435 http://ena.lp.edu.ua:8080/handle/ntb/43902 Kravtsiv S. Development of model f integral fire riskmanagement by correlation-registration analysis / S. Kravtsiv, O. Sobol // Economics, Entrepreneurship, Management. — Lviv : Lviv Politechnic Publishing House, 2018. — Vol 5. — No 1. — P. 81–86. |
|
| Language |
en
|
|
| Relation |
Economics, Entrepreneurship, Management, 1 (5), 2018
http://zakon0.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/37-2014-р http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/254к/96- http://repositsc.nuczu.edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/2037/1/Visnyk_NUCZU_41_2016_2%285%29 http://repositsc.nuczu http://repositsc.nuczu.edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/6410/1/kravtsiv.pdf 1. Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine [Rozporiadzhennia Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy] (2014). On Approval of the Concept of Management of the Risks of Emergencies of Manmade and Natural Characteristics [Pro skhvalennia Kontseptsii upravlinnia ryzykamy vynyknennia nadzvychainykh sytuatsii tekhnohennoho ta pryrodnoho kharakteru]. Retrieved from http://zakon0.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/37-2014-р [in Ukrainian]. 2. The Constitution of Ukraine [Konstytutsiia Ukrainy] (1996). Retrieved from http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/254к/96- вр/page [in Ukrainian]. 3. Kravtsiv S. Ya., Sobol’ O. M. (2016). Analysis of foreign experience of state regulation of acceptable risk level [Analiz zakordonnoho dosvidu derzhavnoho rehuliuvannia rivnia pryiniatnoho ryzyku]. Bulletin of the National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine [Visnyk Natsionalnoho universytetu tsyvilnoho zakhystu Ukrainy], 2 (5), 297–302. Retrieved from http://repositsc.nuczu.edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/2037/1/Visnyk_NUCZU_41_2016_2%285%29. pdf [in Ukrainian]. 4. Kravtsiv S. Ya., Sobol’ O. M., Maksimov A. V.(2016). The analysis of integral risks on the territory of Ukraine. Problems of Emergencies [Problemy nadzvychainykh sytuatsii], 23, 53–60. Retrieved from http://repositsc.nuczu. edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/2031/1/Kravtsiv.pdf. 5. Kravtsiv S. Ya., Sobol’ O. M., Tiutiunyk V. V. (2017). Estimation of parameters of influence on integral fire risk using factor analysis [Otsiniuvannia parametriv vplyvu na intehralnyi pozhezhnyi ryzyk za dopomohoiu faktornoho analizu]. Fire Safety [Pozhezhna bezpeka], 30, 99–104. Retrieved fromhttp://repositsc.nuczu. edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/4899/1/30-13.pdf [in Ukrainian]. 6. Piskunova L. E., V. A. Prylypko,. T. O. Zubok.(2012). Life Safety [Bezpeka zhyttiediialnosti]. Kyiv: PH “Аcademy” [in Ukrainian]. 7. Kravtsiv S. Ya., Sobol’ O. M. (2017). Grouping of administrative-territorial units of Ukraine on the level of integral fire risk by means of cluster analysis [Hrupuvannia administratyvnoterytorialnykh odynyts Ukrainy po rivniu intehralnoho pozhezhnoho ryzyku za dopomohoiu klasternoho analizu]. Problems of Emergencies [Problemy nadzvychainykh sytuatsii], 26, 79–86. Retrieved from http://repositsc.nuczu.edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/6410/1/kravtsiv.pdf [in Ukrainian]. Lviv 1. Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine [Rozporiadzhennia Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy] (2014). On Approval of the Concept of Management of the Risks of Emergencies of Manmade and Natural Characteristics [Pro skhvalennia Kontseptsii upravlinnia ryzykamy vynyknennia nadzvychainykh sytuatsii tekhnohennoho ta pryrodnoho kharakteru]. Retrieved from http://zakon0.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/37-2014-r [in Ukrainian]. 2. The Constitution of Ukraine [Konstytutsiia Ukrainy] (1996). Retrieved from http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/254k/96- vr/page [in Ukrainian]. 3. Kravtsiv S. Ya., Sobol’ O. M. (2016). Analysis of foreign experience of state regulation of acceptable risk level [Analiz zakordonnoho dosvidu derzhavnoho rehuliuvannia rivnia pryiniatnoho ryzyku]. Bulletin of the National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine [Visnyk Natsionalnoho universytetu tsyvilnoho zakhystu Ukrainy], 2 (5), 297–302. Retrieved from http://repositsc.nuczu.edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/2037/1/Visnyk_NUCZU_41_2016_2%285%29. pdf [in Ukrainian]. 4. Kravtsiv S. Ya., Sobol’ O. M., Maksimov A. V.(2016). The analysis of integral risks on the territory of Ukraine. Problems of Emergencies [Problemy nadzvychainykh sytuatsii], 23, 53–60. Retrieved from http://repositsc.nuczu. edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/2031/1/Kravtsiv.pdf. 5. Kravtsiv S. Ya., Sobol’ O. M., Tiutiunyk V. V. (2017). Estimation of parameters of influence on integral fire risk using factor analysis [Otsiniuvannia parametriv vplyvu na intehralnyi pozhezhnyi ryzyk za dopomohoiu faktornoho analizu]. Fire Safety [Pozhezhna bezpeka], 30, 99–104. Retrieved fromhttp://repositsc.nuczu. edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/4899/1/30-13.pdf [in Ukrainian]. 6. Piskunova L. E., V. A. Prylypko,. T. O. Zubok.(2012). Life Safety [Bezpeka zhyttiediialnosti]. Kyiv: PH "Academy" [in Ukrainian]. 7. Kravtsiv S. Ya., Sobol’ O. M. (2017). Grouping of administrative-territorial units of Ukraine on the level of integral fire risk by means of cluster analysis [Hrupuvannia administratyvnoterytorialnykh odynyts Ukrainy po rivniu intehralnoho pozhezhnoho ryzyku za dopomohoiu klasternoho analizu]. Problems of Emergencies [Problemy nadzvychainykh sytuatsii], 26, 79–86. Retrieved from http://repositsc.nuczu.edu.ua/bitstream/123456789/6410/1/kravtsiv.pdf [in Ukrainian]. Lviv |
|
| Rights |
© Національний університет "Львівська політехніка", 2018
|
|
| Format |
81-86
6 application/pdf image/png |
|
| Coverage |
Lviv
|
|
| Publisher |
Lviv Politechnic Publishing House
|
|